Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? After facing credible charges of child molestation, Moore went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones, a civil rights lawyer and former U.S. Attorney. In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. , Gov. Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. All rights reserved. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. NYT Graphics Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. In the counties where most of the vote is in, Senator Ron Johnson is running ahead of Trump. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. . State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. Maggie Astor Alicia Parlapiano Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Alicia Parlapiano November 8 The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. Maggie Astor NV ) Create Your Own Map. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson jumped out to a lead earlier this fall, but the final polls suggest that Democrat Mandela Barnes remains in contention. Nov. 9, 2022, While the race for Georgias senate seat remains extremely tight, the Governors race was decided last night. Redistricting will change everything. WebPredictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Democrats launched a late ad campaign hitting Republican Eric Aadland, who is seeking to become first alphabetically in congressional history by last name. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Out of 170 races contested by both major parties, 43% were decided by a margin of 20 points or more, 28% were decided by a margin of 10-20 points, and 15% were decided by a margin of 5-10 points. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. Heres how POLITICOs are different: Weve demystified the midterms taking you inside the races to explore the macro- and micro-trends driving the campaign. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. The remaining vote there could tighten the race as it is counted. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Maggie Astor Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. That could all change Tuesday. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. 2 References. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. You deserve to hear our thinking. Read more Lazaro Gamio 2 References. According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. Now the the crux of this article these are states that can go either way. Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. This is not a time to be defensive. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. Nate Cohn There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. This is who we think will win. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. Lazaro Gamio GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Nov. 8, 2022, The early vote in Arizona has been strong for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a good portion of the in-person and late-counted mail vote to favor Blake Masters. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. , Gov. Current House. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and on average,it was closer to the final resultthan the traditional gold standard, Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. . Table 3 summarizes the accuracy of these predictions based on a variety of characteristics including the year of the election, the party predicted to win, incumbent vs. open seat contests, and the predicted margin of victory. Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Lazaro Gamio These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. Andrew Fischer Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. John Fetterman defeated the celebrity TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping Pennsylvanias Senate seat to the Democrats. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. Maggie Astor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Maggie Astor In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. Democrats extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress. The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year. Christine Zhang Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Follow along after polls close. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. 1.2 Close races. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Two findings stand out in this table. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Continue with Recommended Cookies. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. Current Senate Nov. 9, 2022, Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). Senate Election Forecast 2022: Can Democrats Keep Control in Midterms? Overall, the candidate of the winning presidential candidate in the state won 156 of 174 Senate contests during these years, a success rate of just under 90%. Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. All rights reserved. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. Nov. 8, 2022, Kentucky, a solidly red state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. Nov. 17, 2022, The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections. Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2024 March 8, 2023 U.S. Senate, Washington, 2024 Feb. 21, 2023 U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024 Feb. 9, 2023 U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024 avg. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. Janet Mills of Maine. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? Source: Data compiled by author. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. Albert Sun Albert Sun Note: Based on 170 contested races. In the 2020 election cycle, 66% of the voters voted for Biden while 68.5% of the voters voted for Republican Governor Phil Scott. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Explore the full list of features on our site map. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. . In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. John Fetterman. The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. but if its not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is facing a self-funding GOP opponent and getting some outside help in the closing week of the campaign. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. Ohio. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. The most recent examples of Republican candidates losing races they should have won occurred in 2020 when the GOP lost 2 contests in Georgia and another in Arizona by margins ranging from 1-3 points that they should have won by about 7 points according to our model. Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Soon, 14 Revolutionary War soldiers will finally rest in peace, Floridas book-ban frenzy targets Nora Roberts, and shes not happy, How Trump made it cool for Republicans to hate their own party, Regulators seize ailing First Republic Bank, sell remains to JPMorgan. Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. . We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Note: Seat estimates may not sum to the total number of seats because of third-party candidates. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. Heres the state of the closest races: Our newest ratings and updates, The Party That Wins the White House in 2024 Could Sweep the House and Senate, The Final Prediction for the House and Senate - and How to Watch Election Day Like a Professional. Individual showings of Senate winners varied widely. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. A lot of outlets do election ratings. that guide every prediction he makes. For the final pre-election results projection, click here. This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. Web1 Predictions. Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. Senate Projection. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. Alicia Parlapiano But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. 0 Days to Election.
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